Anders Larson

FSA, MAAA

Principal & Consulting Actuary

Indianapolis, IN, US

Anders Larson is a principal and consulting actuary with Milliman’s Indianapolis office. Anders provides actuarial consulting services to state Medicaid agencies, commercial and Medicaid health plans, self-funded groups, and provider organizations such as ACOs.

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Experience

His experience includes but is not limited to:

Financial projections
Capitation rate setting
Fiscal estimates for proposed policy change
Benchmarking of experience
Analysis of shared risk agreements
Incurred but not reported reserve estimates
Research studies using large public data sources

Since 2012, he has been significantly involved with provider payment reform and value-based reimbursement, working on behalf of private payers, state governments, ACOs, and other provider organizations. He has a wide range of experience with predictive analytics applications, from traditional risk adjustment models to modern machine learning algorithms. From 2015 to 2018, Anders has served on the Society of Actuaries’ Predictive Analytics and Futurism section council. He was the section’s chair in 2018.

Publications and Presentations

Ten questions providers should be asking about their value-based contracts and the COVID-19 pandemic. Milliman white paper (May 2020).
Considerations for predictive modeling in insurance applications. Society of Actuaries Research Report (June 2019).
“Pathways to Success” MSSP Final rule: Winners and losers. Milliman white paper (February 2019).
Seven key challenges for Medicaid states considering alternative payment models. Milliman white paper (January 2019).
“Pathways to Success” MSSP Proposed rule: Assignment changes to identification of E&M Services in skilled nursing facilities. Milliman white paper (October 2018).
“Pathways to Success” MSSP Proposed rule: Winners and losers. Milliman white paper (October 2018).
What predictive analytics can tell us about key drivers of MSSP results. Milliman white paper (September 2017).
Performance of skilled nursing facilities for the Medicare population. Milliman white paper (December 2016).
Benefits Perspectives: Introduction to shared savings arrangements and ACOs. Milliman white paper (September 2015).
Challenges with measuring savings in shared savings arrangements. Milliman white paper (March 2015).

Industry Presentations

Identifying the Best VBC Model/Track for Your Organization, NAACOS 2021 Boot Camp (January 2021).
Using member-level predictive models to calculate IBNR reserves, Actuaries Club of the Southwest Spring Conference (June 2019).
Critical Point podcast, Episode 11: Shea and Anders talk blockchain (Part 3): Insurance applications. Milliman podcast (May 2019).
Managing ACO Composition to Maximize Shared Savings, NAACOS Spring 2019 Conference (April 2019).
Seven key challenges for Medicaid states considering alternative payment models. Milliman webinar (February 2019).
Critical Point podcast, Episode 3: Shea and Anders talk blockchain (Part 1) Milliman podcast (January 2019).
Critical Point podcast, Episode 9: Shea and Anders talk blockchain (Part 2) Milliman podcast (October 2018).
Becoming Accountable – Achieving Success in Population Health (panelist), Indiana Healthcare Executives Network Program (February 2018).
Innovative Uses of Risk Adjustment, Society of Actuaries Health Meeting (June 2017).
Measuring and Benchmarking SNF Performance Metrics for ACOs and MA Plans, MCOL Webinar (March 2017).
Case Studies in Value-Based Care, Society of Actuaries Health Meeting (June 2015).
What Do ACOs Really Care About?, Tri-State Actuarial Club Annual Conference (September 2014).

Professional Designations

Fellow, Society of Actuaries
Member, American Academy of Actuaries

Education

BA, Mathematics, Wake Forest University

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Publications

Read their latest work

Article

Applying an equity lens to Medicaid risk adjustment

20 December 2024 - by Anders Larson, Erica S. Baird (formerly, Erica Rode), Nazanin Dameshghi, Libby Bunzli, Spencer Polak

We discuss how state Medicaid agencies could wield their financing and policy tools thoughtfully and proactively to address health inequities.

Article

Using machine learning to identify the key drivers of MSSP results: Performance year 2022 update

05 April 2024 - by Anders Larson, Cory Gusland, Austin Kennedy, Hayden Chromy

In our third performance driver study of the Medicare Shared Savings Program, we identify regional efficiency as an important characteristic for ACO total savings.

Article

The winding road to value: Understanding VBC dynamics in each market

12 February 2024 - by Anders Larson, Brent Jensen, Blaine Miller, Simon Moody

As providers increasingly adopt value-based care for reimbursement, it’s important they know the dynamics of each market, from Medicare to commercial to Medicaid.

Article

What predictive analytics can tell us about key drivers of MSSP results: 2021 update

04 August 2021 - by Anders Larson, Mackenzie Egan, Robert Richards, Cory Gusland

We analyzed recent MSSP results for ACOs, and found that drivers of recent success are quite different from our report in 2015, and in some cases the opposite.

Article

Ten questions providers should be asking about their value-based contracts and the COVID-19 pandemic

19 May 2020 - by Cory Gusland, Anders Larson, Brian A. Sweatman

For any given provider organization, the impact of COVID-19 on its value-based contracts will depend largely on certain actuarial, legal, and strategic aspects of each agreement.

Article

Considerations for predictive modeling in insurance applications

25 June 2019 - by Eileen S. Burns, Anders Larson, Robert Meyer, Zohair Motiwalla, Guy Yollin

What are the best ways to implement predictive modeling into relevant areas of actuarial practice?

Article

Critical Point Episode 11: Shea and Anders talk blockchain (Part 3): Insurance applications

08 May 2019 - by Anders Larson, Shea Parkes

The third in a multi-part series, Milliman’s Shea Parkes and Anders Larson discuss potential insurance applications for blockchain technology, along with some of the drawbacks.

Article

Webinar: Seven key challenges for Medicaid states considering alternative payment models

28 February 2019 - by Zach Hunt, Rebecca L. Johnson, Anders Larson

Article

"Pathways to Success" MSSP final rule: Winners and losers

14 February 2019 - by Cory Gusland, Anders Larson

This paper examines the Medicare Shared Savings Program’s (MSSP) final rule from the perspective of different accountable care organization (ACO) situations to help readers understand how the MSSP rule might affect different ACOs.

Article

Seven key challenges for Medicaid states considering alternative payment models

29 January 2019 - by Zach Hunt, Rebecca L. Johnson, Anders Larson

This article focuses on some of the challenges that Medicaid payers (including states and managed care organizations) face when trying to establish alternative payment models with providers.

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Experience

His experience includes but is not limited to:

Financial projections
Capitation rate setting
Fiscal estimates for proposed policy change
Benchmarking of experience
Analysis of shared risk agreements
Incurred but not reported reserve estimates
Research studies using large public data sources

Read their latest work

Article

Applying an equity lens to Medicaid risk adjustment

20 December 2024 - by Anders Larson, Erica S. Baird (formerly, Erica Rode), Nazanin Dameshghi, Libby Bunzli, Spencer Polak

We discuss how state Medicaid agencies could wield their financing and policy tools thoughtfully and proactively to address health inequities.

Article

Using machine learning to identify the key drivers of MSSP results: Performance year 2022 update

05 April 2024 - by Anders Larson, Cory Gusland, Austin Kennedy, Hayden Chromy

In our third performance driver study of the Medicare Shared Savings Program, we identify regional efficiency as an important characteristic for ACO total savings.

Article

The winding road to value: Understanding VBC dynamics in each market

12 February 2024 - by Anders Larson, Brent Jensen, Blaine Miller, Simon Moody

As providers increasingly adopt value-based care for reimbursement, it’s important they know the dynamics of each market, from Medicare to commercial to Medicaid.

Article

What predictive analytics can tell us about key drivers of MSSP results: 2021 update

04 August 2021 - by Anders Larson, Mackenzie Egan, Robert Richards, Cory Gusland

We analyzed recent MSSP results for ACOs, and found that drivers of recent success are quite different from our report in 2015, and in some cases the opposite.

Article

Ten questions providers should be asking about their value-based contracts and the COVID-19 pandemic

19 May 2020 - by Cory Gusland, Anders Larson, Brian A. Sweatman

For any given provider organization, the impact of COVID-19 on its value-based contracts will depend largely on certain actuarial, legal, and strategic aspects of each agreement.

Article

Considerations for predictive modeling in insurance applications

25 June 2019 - by Eileen S. Burns, Anders Larson, Robert Meyer, Zohair Motiwalla, Guy Yollin

What are the best ways to implement predictive modeling into relevant areas of actuarial practice?

Article

Critical Point Episode 11: Shea and Anders talk blockchain (Part 3): Insurance applications

08 May 2019 - by Anders Larson, Shea Parkes

The third in a multi-part series, Milliman’s Shea Parkes and Anders Larson discuss potential insurance applications for blockchain technology, along with some of the drawbacks.

Article

Anders Larson

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Experience

Industry Presentations

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Read their latest work

Applying an equity lens to Medicaid risk adjustment

Using machine learning to identify the key drivers of MSSP results: Performance year 2022 update

The winding road to value: Understanding VBC dynamics in each market

What predictive analytics can tell us about key drivers of MSSP results: 2021 update

Ten questions providers should be asking about their value-based contracts and the COVID-19 pandemic

Considerations for predictive modeling in insurance applications

Critical Point Episode 11: Shea and Anders talk blockchain (Part 3): Insurance applications

Webinar: Seven key challenges for Medicaid states considering alternative payment models

"Pathways to Success" MSSP final rule: Winners and losers

Seven key challenges for Medicaid states considering alternative payment models

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Anders Larson

Experience

Industry Presentations

Read their latest work

Applying an equity lens to Medicaid risk adjustment

Using machine learning to identify the key drivers of MSSP results: Performance year 2022 update

The winding road to value: Understanding VBC dynamics in each market

What predictive analytics can tell us about key drivers of MSSP results: 2021 update

Ten questions providers should be asking about their value-based contracts and the COVID-19 pandemic

Considerations for predictive modeling in insurance applications

Critical Point Episode 11: Shea and Anders talk blockchain (Part 3): Insurance applications

Webinar: Seven key challenges for Medicaid states considering alternative payment models

"Pathways to Success" MSSP final rule: Winners and losers

Seven key challenges for Medicaid states considering alternative payment models

CHOOSE A LOCATION AND LANGUAGE